Unidentified Science 6 – The Probability/Strangeness Matrix

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This time I am going to talk about a specific and easy to understand tool for revealing patterns in our data. It is called the Probability/Strangeness matrix, and it has been around for decades, although I’ve yet to see it used to its full potential.

The matrix is very simple. After we have investigated a case, we rate the case on a scale of 0 to 5 for both probability and strangeness. These two ratings are required to be independent – a case can be strange but improbable, it can be probable but not very strange, or any combination. What we are of course most interested in the small fraction of cases in the upper right hand corner of the matrix that are both probable and strange, and how they move on the matrix as the investigation proceeds. It’s very clear from the plot – usually done with probability on the horizontal axis and strangeness on the vertical – what is going on.

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What are your questions?

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In our upcoming video series as well as our ongoing podcast API Case Files, we want to answer your questions. What questions do you have about reporting UFO sightings, how API Investigates sightings, what you can expect from us, or how to become a Field Investigator? Or, anything else related? Let us know in the comments to this post, or shoot us your question via the contact form.

Please keep your questions specific, and let us know if it is ok to use your name when we give the answer.

Unidentified Science 5 – The Virtue of Skepticism

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I spent a fair bit of time trying to think of a clever metaphor for skepticism, and failed, so for now, let me just remind you that I have been saying for some time that skepticism is a virtue and a practice that we must not only accept, but embrace. Before, we do that, though, let me remind you briefly about what skepticism isn’t.

Skepticism isn’t about arguing that one static view of the world is superior to its rivals. It isn’t cynicism, an attitude of superiority, or membership in the elite Tribe of Reason and Science. Nor is it a commitment to discredit any particular controversial claim. Skepticism doesn’t make you better than other people, but properly practiced, it can help you be better than you were, or might have been without it.

Some of you, most I expect, will have painful memories of fundamentalist debunkers calling themselves skeptics, who will take refuge in any half-baked, hand-waving explanation in a storm, so long as it does no violence to their worldview. I promise that we’re not talking about this skepticism in name only, which is actually just motivated reasoning in defense of dogma. It’s easy to claim the critical thinking high ground when no one else challenges you for it, but that is what we are going to do. I’m on the side of discarding the dishonest and the mistaken, and I make so bold as to think that’s what you want as well.

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Conversation 8 – Cheryl Costa, part 1

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Released: 24 March 2018

Duration: 62 minutes

Marsha Barnhart talks to Cheryl Costa, co-author of UFO Sightings Desk Reference. This is a one-of-a-kind reference book covering 15 years of UFO sightings within the United States. The information was gleaned from more than 120,000 raw reports made by citizens to either the Mutual UFO Network (MUFON) or the National UFO Reporting Center (NUFORC) between the years 2001 to 2015. The information is a statistical bonanza annotating the frequency, distribution and shapes of reported UFO’s, with accompanying graphs charts and charts, and broken down into states and state counties for all 50 states and the District of Columbia.

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Our YouTube Channel

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We’ve decided to get our YouTube channel going in earnest.  We’re going to put a log of our visually oriented case material there, as well as training and public education material. Right now, there isn’t much, but we’ll be building it up and improving the channel over the next few months. We’ll also be improving the artwork and overall feel. The more long form content that doesn’t require anything visual will remain on the podcast.

We hope you’ll hit the subscribe button so you’ll be notified about new content as we add it.

Unidentified Science 4 – Smarter than we are?

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As I promised at the end of Unidentified Science 3, this time I’m going to take a little break this time from talking about virtuous scientific work. Such work is hard, slow and often reaches a Great Divide where no progress seems possible, but we have gone too far to quit.

So, it’s good to have a little fun once and awhile and indulge in speculation. As long as you clearly label speculation as just that, there is no harm in it, and these little imaginative expeditions can often stimulate really useful new ideas.  After all, that’s one thing science fiction is good for. Like good science fiction, we want our speculations to be informed by the best science we have, admitting that there are leaps across the gap of our ignorance that are simply made up for the amusement of thinking about it.

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Field Investigation gear – notes on cameras

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All those reviews

I’ve been researching digital cameras quite a lot lately. I need something that produces better and more repeatable results than my smartphone, but I had to give this quite a lot of thought. There are a lot of very good, thorough photography and videography reviews out there, but you have to listen between the lines – what sort of results is this reviewer interested in? Chances are, the reviewer is going for an aesthetically pleasing result, whether the subject be brides or birds. There is nothing wrong with that, but the review is most often from that point of view. What we as field investigators are looking for is something different. So, when doing your research, keep that in mind.

Too Many Choices

The venerable Canon EOS 40D

Camera technology has vaulted ahead since I bought my Canon EOS 40D years ago – the last time I really looked into this. BTW, my EOS 40D is built like a tank and is still in great condition. Almost every camera shoots video now, and there are a wide range of options. Olympus, Panasonic and Sony have broken into the higher end of things alongside Canon and Nikon with some really good gear, and the old DSLR architecture has serious competition from the more compact mirrorless cameras. Things like autofocus, video resolution, and low light sensitivity have come a long way.

This is overall a good thing, but it’s like being in a candy store and your mom says you can only have 1 handful – it can be agonizing. you can do a lot to narrow things down by not starting with the technology, but with what your requirements are. Let me make a few suggestions.

Getting to What We Actually Need

You have to consider a few Design Reference Missions – in what scenarios do you need a camera, and in what conditions? There are the common uses, and some extraordinary but important circumstances when you want to be ready for anything:

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Unidentified Science 3 – Perception and Memory

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I started off this series by talking about four virtues I think we are going to have to live by if the study of UFOs is ever going to be accepted as a science: humility, patience, integrity and skepticism. This one is a little bit about skepticism, but mostly about patience.

There is a big problem in Unidentified Aerial Phenomena research that needs to be addressed before we can make any claim of being a scientific enterprise. We are going to need a lot of patience to solve it. The problem is that much, in fact nearly all of our database is eyewitness testimony.

While our research has keep pretty much the same approach as always, science has marched on, and this includes the studies of human perception and memory.

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