I spent a fair bit of time trying to think of a clever metaphor for skepticism, and failed, so for now, let me just remind you that I have been saying for some time that skepticism is a virtue and a practice that we must not only accept, but embrace. Before, we do that, though, let me remind you briefly about what skepticism isn’t.
Skepticism isn’t about arguing that one static view of the world is superior to its rivals. It isn’t cynicism, an attitude of superiority, or membership in the elite Tribe of Reason and Science. Nor is it a commitment to discredit any particular controversial claim. Skepticism doesn’t make you better than other people, but properly practiced, it can help you be better than you were, or might have been without it.
Some of you, most I expect, will have painful memories of fundamentalist debunkers calling themselves skeptics, who will take refuge in any half-baked, hand-waving explanation in a storm, so long as it does no violence to their worldview. I promise that we’re not talking about this skepticism in name only, which is actually just motivated reasoning in defense of dogma. It’s easy to claim the critical thinking high ground when no one else challenges you for it, but that is what we are going to do. I’m on the side of discarding the dishonest and the mistaken, and I make so bold as to think that’s what you want as well.
Professor Feynman has his doubts.
To paraphrase the late lamented Richard Feynman, skepticism is really just about honesty – about not fooling people, and crucially, recognizing the painful truth that you are the easiest one to fool.
I have mentioned before the book by Aronson and Tavris, Mistakes Were Made, but Not By Me, which brings this home with example after infuriating example: in medical science, in criminal justice, in psychotherapy, in war and peace, in personal relationships, and more. We find that we humans not only are willing to deceive ourselves, but go about it with great energy and invention. Of course, the byproduct of this self deception is that we also fool others.
What hope is there for us then? How do we get anything right; tangled mess of biases, blind spots, fictional memories and self justifying narratives that we all are?
Well, it isn’t easy, but we finally seem to have invented the one thing that usually works over the long run, and there isn’t a close second. It’s a way we have of helping each other through all our human failings; called science, and here is something that the general public, the media – and even some scientists – usually completely miss: science can only thrive when doubt is valued and uncertainty is honored. This attitude of skepticism – demanding that for any idea to be even provisionally accepted, we must do everything we can think of to show that it is wrong – is essential not only to science, but to self defense in a world full of fraud and irrational fervor.
When it comes to our hopes for a UAP science, a skeptical attitude is absolutely essential not just to making progress, but to survival. With the data so ambiguous and open to interpretation, it is far too easy to fall into the trap of confirmation bias, in which believing is seeing. There are too many rabbit holes to fall into, and they are deep and hard to escape. Many never find the way out of their particular warren. I have seen it, and it is just sad.
Skepticism brings doubt to the forefront. As skeptical investigators, we never stop asking ourselves if the data are authentic, and if there are other ways to interpret the data. We constantly wonder if we might be fooling ourselves.
You won’t last long as a serious field investigator if you’re not skeptical. However, we also head into a new case with curiosity and respect for the witnesses. We are not pedantic naysayers, come to rescue people from their unreason ( a mostly hopeless mission in any case), but are earnestly open to whatever we can learn. We want to know: what facts can be established, and what testimony can be corroborated. We always keep the null hypothesis in the mix, until multiple lines of evidence clearly retire it. In many cases, the witness is an honest person who just misinterpreted something. In a few cases, our investigation shows that the claims of the witness are simply bunk and then: we debunk.
In a small residual of cases, we can’t explain the report. We then have to say those three little words that mean so much: I Don’t Know. When you can go through that whole process, end to end, with reason and integrity, possibly even change your mind, and still say “I don’t know,” then you are a proper skeptic. Be proud.
